Today's Draft Coin Flip Odds

[kingraider412]

Basically, if we win the coin toss with the Nets, we have an 87% chance of being in the Top 6. With Slots 1,2, 3,5,6, .We cannot get the forth pick

If we lose we have a 69% chance of being in the Top 6. With Slots 1,2,3,6, We cannot get picks 4 and 5.
The Top 6 players are:
Davis
Beal
GilChrist
Robinson
Drummond
Barnes



The winner of the Kings-Nets drawing will have that 25 percent probability of leaping into the top 3, no possibility of landing at No. 4, a 26 percent probability of landing the No. 5 pick, a 36 percent probability of landing the No. 6 pick, an 8 percent chance of landing the No. 7 pick and a less than 1 percent chance of landing at No. 8.

The loser of the Kings-Nets drawing will have that 25 percent probability of leaping into the top 3, but no possibility of landing at No. 4 or No. 5, a 44 percent probability of landing at No. 6, a 30 percent probability of landing at No. 7, a 4 percent probability of landing at No. 8 and a less than 1 percent probability of landing at No. 9.


The coin flip is huge.. It's a 22% difference in whether we get in the Top 6 or not.

[Sir Harry]

the system is beyond stupid

[nuraman00]

Basically, if we win the coin toss with the Nets, we have an 87% chance of being in the Top 6. With Slots 1,2, 3,5,6, .We cannot get the forth pick

If we lose we have a 69% chance of being in the Top 6. With Slots 1,2,3,6, We cannot get picks 4 and 5.
The Top 6 players are:
Davis
Beal
GilChrist
Robinson
Drummond
Barnes



The winner of the Kings-Nets drawing will have that 25 percent probability of leaping into the top 3, no possibility of landing at No. 4, a 26 percent probability of landing the No. 5 pick, a 36 percent probability of landing the No. 6 pick, an 8 percent chance of landing the No. 7 pick and a less than 1 percent chance of landing at No. 8.

The loser of the Kings-Nets drawing will have that 25 percent probability of leaping into the top 3, but no possibility of landing at No. 4 or No. 5, a 44 percent probability of landing at No. 6, a 30 percent probability of landing at No. 7, a 4 percent probability of landing at No. 8 and a less than 1 percent probability of landing at No. 9.


The coin flip is huge.. It's a 22% difference in whether we get in the Top 6 or not.

No, that's incorrect.


Because Sacramento and New Jersey finished with the same record, they take the averages for the 6th and 7th picks, which would be (63+43)/2 = 53. Each team will have 53 winning combinations out of 1000.

Whoever wins the coin flip will just pick 6th instead of 7th if they don't move up. (Or both will move down by the same same amount).

But the odds between both teams are exactly the same.

If the average had not come out to an integer like 53.0, then one team would have one extra chance out of 1000.

But in this case, Sacramento and New Jersey have the exact same odds, it's just the coin flip winner will pick ahead of the other if they both stay the same or move down.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

Portland and Minnesota had the exact same scenario in 2007.

There is NO difference between the odds between Sacramento and New Jersey in this case, and the only end result will be one team will be picking ahead of the other if neither move up.

From wiki:

+++++++++++++++++++

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

In the event that teams finish with the same record, each tied team receives the average of the total number of combinations for the positions that they occupy. In 2007, the Minnesota Timberwolves (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Timberwolves) and the Portland Trail Blazers (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portland_Trail_Blazers) tied for the sixth worst record. The average of the 6th and 7th positions in the lottery was taken, resulting in each team getting 53 combinations (the average of 63 and 43). Should the average number not be an integer (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integer), a coin flip is then used to determine which team or teams receive the extra combination(s). The result of the coin flip is also used to determine who receives the earlier pick in the event that neither of the tied teams wins one of the first three picks via the lottery.

[nuraman00]

the system is beyond stupid

It's not as drastic as what post # 1 said. In fact, in this case, the odds are exactly the same for both teams.

[GoKings2010]

The system is still stupid! Im still not understanding why the Kings won last night. Now we are 5th worse in the league instead of 3rd. I wanted us tobe players for the number 1 pick but looks like thats out the question.

[bloatedmaniac]

Well the Kings win the coin flip, worse they can get is 8th.

The part of the lottery system that I hate is that the team with the worst record has the highest chance of getting the 4th pick of the draft. Thats pretty convulted.

[bloatedmaniac]

The system is still stupid! Im still not understanding why the Kings won last night. Now we are 5th worse in the league instead of 3rd. I wanted us tobe players for the number 1 pick but looks like thats out the question.

I was all for the Kings losing, but you do it legitimately. If you tell 12 players to go on the court and lose in any game, I wouldn't want any of those 12 members on my team. They should be out there playing for pride, experience, and because they want to play to win. You don't want to breed a culture of losing. Its bad enough the crap of an ownership group is already buring the team, you don't want players giving 10% to lose to a bunch of scrubs.

[graumet]

The Kings will get the 9th pick, trade it, Isaiah Thomas, and Jason Thompson for the 15 pick, S. Dalembert and a small bag of cocaine that Petrie, Momma and George Maloof spit three ways. Petrie will be reluctant at first, but when Houston throws in a set of fresh diapers for Joe and Gavin, he can't resist to pull the trigger.

[graumet]

There is no good reason that I can think of to have the pulling of the ping-pong balls from the tumbler NOT televised.... IF it's not fixed.

[bloatedmaniac]

There is no good reason that I can think of to have the pulling of the ping-pong balls from the tumbler NOT televised.... IF it's not fixed.

They like the current set up for shock value and to keep viewers until they are done. They could always still show the recording late, toss it up on youtube, show the ping pong balls when you get to the 3 finalists for the picks. The video should be displayed though somewhere. We all know Stern has fixed before and still can again.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bX1kMlG8c7Y

[nuraman00]

There is no good reason that I can think of to have the pulling of the ping-pong balls from the tumbler NOT televised.... IF it's not fixed.

A. It's not fixed. They have NBA representatives in the room, where the drawing takes place. There's two sets of representatives, the TV representatives, and the witness representatives.

Rich Cho and Kevin Pritchard were Seattle and Portland's representatives in the room during the 2007 Draft Lottery. They each described their experience what it was like finding out, in various subsequent interviews.

B. It's not meant for TV at all. First of all, you draw four balls per top-3 lottery slot. Then, there's a delay between when the last ball is drawn, and the room figures out who the winning team is.

It's exactly like B-I-N-G-O. You know how there's a delay of 10-15 seconds after a ball is drawn, and someone realizes he or she has won and calls out "BINGO"?

That's what the Draft Lottery is like. After the 4th ball is drawn, there's a 10-15 second delay until someone figures out which team won.

It would be boring to watch BINGO televised.

Especially teams that have a lot of combinations, they have a lot of scanning to do to see if they have all four digits in one of their combinations.

Even though there's a big board up there with all 1000 combinations, there's still a delay.

It would make for awkward TV watching a 10-15 second delay after every winner. It would be anti-climatic.

With the format it's presented now, at least you can see immediate joy in the winning representative.

Plus, since they draw the #1 pick first, the team that won #2 and # 3 wouldn't be as excited. There would just be a natural lessening of enthusiasm.

That's why in the format it's presented now, there's a countdown, so there's increasing visible excitement, not a reduction in excitement.

[nuraman00]

The Kings winning the game yesterday didn't change the odds much.

Had they lost the game, there would be a 3-way tie for 3rd, 4th, and 5th. Each team would have gotten a 12.1% chance of the #1 pick.

Now, the Kings have a 7.6% chance of the #1 pick. A reduction of only 4.5%.

Their odds of a top 3 pick went from 38% to 25%. That's a bit more significant.

http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2012/04/2012_nba_draft_lottery_odds_cl.html




Team
W
L
Win
average
No. 1 pick chance
Lottery chances
Somewhere
in top 3


1
Charlotte
7
59
0.106
25.0%
250
64%


2
Washington
20
46
0.303
19.9%
199
56%


3
Cleveland
21
45
0.318
13.8%
138
42%


4
New Orleans
21
45
0.318
13.8%
137
42%


5
Sacramento
22
44
0.333
7.6%
76
25%


6
x-New Jersey
22
44
0.333
7.6%
75
25%


7
y-Golden State
23
43
0.348
3.6%
36
13%


8
Toronto
23
43
0.348
3.6%
35
12%


9
Detroit
25
41
0.379
1.7%
17
6%


10
z-Minnesota
26
40
0.394
1.1%
11
4%


11
Portland
28
38
0.424
0.8%
8
3%


12
Milwaukee
31
35
0.470
0.7%
7
3%


13
Phoenix
33
33
0.500
0.6%
6
2%


14
Houston
34
32
0.515
0.5%
5
2%

[graumet]

A. It's not fixed. They have NBA representatives in the room, where the drawing takes place. There's two sets of representatives, the TV representatives, and the witness representatives.

Rich Cho and Kevin Pritchard were Seattle and Portland's representatives in the room during the 2007 Draft Lottery. They each described their experience what it was like finding out, in various subsequent interviews.

B. It's not meant for TV at all. First of all, you draw four balls per top-3 lottery slot. Then, there's a delay between when the last ball is drawn, and the room figures out who the winning team is.

It's exactly like B-I-N-G-O. You know how there's a delay of 10-15 seconds after a ball is drawn, and someone realizes he or she has won and calls out "BINGO"?

That's what the Draft Lottery is like. After the 4th ball is drawn, there's a 10-15 second delay until someone figures out which team won.

It would be boring to watch BINGO televised.

Especially teams that have a lot of combinations, they have a lot of scanning to do to see if they have all four digits in one of their combinations.

Even though there's a big board up there with all 1000 combinations, there's still a delay.

It would make for awkward TV watching a 10-15 second delay after every winner. It would be anti-climatic.

With the format it's presented now, at least you can see immediate joy in the winning representative.

Plus, since they draw the #1 pick first, the team that won #2 and # 3 wouldn't be as excited. There would just be a natural lessening of enthusiasm.

That's why in the format it's presented now, there's a countdown, so there's increasing visible excitement, not a reduction in excitement.


I don't buy it. Why wouldn't they show it in someway to the public.

These "representatives" sound fishy to me. Hey Nuraman, here is 5,000$ for you to stand in this room and pretend you're watching a legitimate lottery. Afterwards you report to the press everything was as it should be, then we'll give you 5,000$ more... You'd do it right?

Sometimes things are the way they seem.

[Eze]

Why the hell does NBADraft.net have the Kings picking fourth?!!

[GoKings2010]

Do we still have a chance to getting the number 1 pick and has anyone made a significant move from 6th or 7th position to a top 3? Also I belive its rigged as well. I dont care how long it takes to get the results and they dont have to put it on tnt or take up any show time but put it on nba.com or nba tv since they only show reruns anyways. The fact they dont want to show it live proves to me it is fake!

[nuraman00]

I don't buy it. Why wouldn't they show it in someway to the public.

These "representatives" sound fishy to me. Hey Nuraman, here is 5,000$ for you to stand in this room and pretend you're watching a legitimate lottery. Afterwards you report to the press everything was as it should be, then we'll give you 5,000$ more... You'd do it right?

Sometimes things are the way they seem.

These "representatives" are Kevin Pritchard and Rich Cho. Pritchard was the GM of Portland in 2007. Cho was the assistant GM of Seattle in 2007.

They wouldn't need $10,000, nor just sit idly while someone else hypothetically gets a good pick. Not when their respective team's success is tied to their jobs.

These representatives are high ranking team officials, not some intern working for each organization.

Portland almost won the draft lottery in 2008 also, as they had the first 3 numbers drawn (11, 9, 13). They needed the 4th number to be 12, but since it was a 7, it went to Chicago.

[GoKings2010]

Good morning nuramon but I still dnt buy it. U said there higher officials but who really can argue with Stern? Stern will say where teams draft and that plain and simple. Let me bring in "close friends" to watch who I choose to draft just to show the world its not rigged.

[nuraman00]

Do we still have a chance to getting the number 1 pick and has anyone made a significant move from 6th or 7th position to a top 3? Also I belive its rigged as well. I dont care how long it takes to get the results and they dont have to put it on tnt or take up any show time but put it on nba.com or nba tv since they only show reruns anyways. The fact they dont want to show it live proves to me it is fake!

The Kings are slotted 5th, not 7th.




Cleveland won it in 2011 via the Clippers pick from the 8th slot.

Washington won it in 2010 from the 5th slot.

Chicago won it in 2008 from the 8th slot.

Portland won it in 2007 from the 6th slot.

Toronto won the draft lottery in 2006 from the 5th slot.

Milwaukee won it in 2005 from the 6th slot.

Houston won it in 2002 from the 5th slot.

New Jersey won it in 2000 from the 7th slot.

Golden State won it in 1995 from the 5th slot.

[Eze]

Do we still have a chance to getting the number 1 pick and has anyone made a significant move from 6th or 7th position to a top 3? Also I belive its rigged as well. I dont care how long it takes to get the results and they dont have to put it on tnt or take up any show time but put it on nba.com or nba tv since they only show reruns anyways. The fact they dont want to show it live proves to me it is fake!

Kings can still get the #1 pick, though, semi unlikely.

Kings have a 7.6% chance of winning the lotto, 8.6% chance at number two, 9.5% chance at the third pick. They have a 26.1% chance at staying at 5, a 38.6% chance to drop to 6th, a 9.3% chance to drop to 7th and a 0.8% to get the 8th pick, which is as far as they can drop.

So more likely than not, they have about a 55% chance to pick at either the 5 or 6 spot.

[nuraman00]

Good morning nuramon but I still dnt buy it. U said there higher officials but who really can argue with Stern? Stern will say where teams draft and that plain and simple. Let me bring in "close friends" to watch who I choose to draft just to show the world its not rigged.

:) Good morning.

So you think GMs and President of Basketball Operations of each team would sit there in the room and watch Stern rig it?

And, HOW do you rig a 4 digit number? If it's one digit, ok.

But 4 digits. 4 balls. You can't rig 4 balls being drawn per lottery slot. One wrong one and it would go to a completely different team.

I can pull up the winning numbers for some of the teams in the past few years, it's on the internet.

Do you think Stern memorized the 53 4-ball combination winning numbers out of 1000 that his favorite team has?

[nuraman00]

Kings can still get the #1 pick, though, semi unlikely.

Kings have a 7.6% chance of winning the lotto, 8.6% chance at number two, 9.5% chance at the third pick. They have a 26.1% chance at staying at 5, a 38.6% chance to drop to 6th, a 9.3% chance to drop to 7th and a 0.8% to get the 8th pick, which is as far as they can drop.

So more likely than not, they have about a 55% chance to pick at either the 5 or 6 spot.

Agree, those are the same numbers I posted in post # 12 (but you gave more info for the #2 and # 3 picks too, and 7th and 8th).

[Eze]

If they can stay at 5 or above, I'll be happy. I think it's a five player draft with Davis, Robinson, Kidd-Gilchrist, Drummond and Barnes. The rest after that, you're looking at a crapshoot.

Beal and Sullenger might be the next best, but, seems like a pretty solid drop off from the top 5.

[nuraman00]

It would be like rigging bingo. How would anyone know (or memorize) what 5 (in this case 4) numbers belong on one person's board, and not another?

It's not just one ball, it's four balls that have to be drawn before they determine who gets that slot.

It would be like rigging Mega Millions (with 4 numbers instead of 6). You don't know what #'s your best friend has.

[nuraman00]

If they can stay at 5 or above, I'll be happy. I think it's a five player draft with Davis, Robinson, Kidd-Gilchrist, Drummond and Barnes. The rest after that, you're looking at a crapshoot.

Beal and Sullenger might be the next best, but, seems like a pretty solid drop off from the top 5.

Agree. And even then, someone may pick a "Wesley Johnson" instead of a "DeMarcus Cousins".

[Eze]

What a boneheaded move that was, lol.

[GoKings2010]

:) Good morning.

So you think GMs and President of Basketball Operations of each team would sit there in the room and watch Stern rig it?

And, HOW do you rig a 4 digit number? If it's one digit, ok.

But 4 digits. 4 balls. You can't rig 4 balls being drawn per lottery slot. One wrong one and it would go to a completely different team.

I can pull up the winning numbers for some of the teams in the past few years, it's on the internet.

Do you think Stern memorized the 53 4-ball combination winning numbers out of 1000 that his favorite team has?

No I honestly dont think its that complex. I think they say it is so therefore it dont look like it can be rigged but all they have to do is be like Kings getting the #1,bOBCATS #2 and go down the list. They dont need to do no ball drop or odds or w/e if its rigged. They would keep it simple. U can easily rigg BINGO as well. There are premade cards, duplicate balls, or even when a ball comes out the mahcine dont advertise it and say B-6 or w/e the combination is to win. U can rigg anything u like and make it look real. Ur telling me that the NBA isnt out to make money on good series in the playoffs trying to force the good ones to go 7? U dont think the NBA knew that the refs were prior mafia or w/e they were? Did the NBA think prior mafia wouldnt try to get a hustle on in the NBA. Im sure the NBA knew all about it and said to try and push it out as long as u can.

[nuraman00]

No I honestly dont think its that complex. I think they say it is so therefore it dont look like it can be rigged but all they have to do is be like Kings getting the #1,bOBCATS #2 and go down the list. They dont need to do no ball drop or odds or w/e if its rigged. They would keep it simple. U can easily rigg BINGO as well. There are premade cards, duplicate balls, or even when a ball comes out the mahcine dont advertise it and say B-6 or w/e the combination is to win. U can rigg anything u like and make it look real. Ur telling me that the NBA isnt out to make money on good series in the playoffs trying to force the good ones to go 7? U dont think the NBA knew that the refs were prior mafia or w/e they were? Did the NBA think prior mafia wouldnt try to get a hustle on in the NBA. Im sure the NBA knew all about it and said to try and push it out as long as u can.

There aren't duplicate cards though, they have this board in the room that has all 1000 combinations of 4 digit numbers, and what team gets them.

As for duplicate balls, they show the balls to the GMs in the room before they put them in.

And for calling out the wrong ball, you could only do that for the 4th ball if you want to change it from one team to another, and you'd have to be quick to know which number would change it from one team to another.

If they wanted to rig it, why didn't they give Boston Tim Duncan, Greg Oden, or Kevin Durant? Boston had the worst record both times, and in 2007, got the #5 pick.

[GoKings2010]

But then they got rewarded a title after tht. Wheres our title for being the worst in the league the last 4 yrs?

[GoKings2010]

My point is unless u are there or have seen how it is done then u really don thave a clue wats going on in there. If they allow refs to rigg a game why would the lottery be legit?

[nuraman00]

But then they got rewarded a title after tht. Wheres our title for being the worst in the league the last 4 yrs?

They got a title because of trades they made. They traded their #5 pick.

I wouldn't mind trading a draft pick for a vet, if it's the right one.

[nuraman00]

My point is unless u are there or have seen how it is done then u really don thave a clue wats going on in there. If they allow refs to rigg a game why would the lottery be legit?

IMO, it's because GMs are in the room. GMs have too much at stake to not say anything.

[GoKings2010]

HAve u seen GM`s go this thing or just have read it? The league will give the right pick to teams that are losing money majorly. Without a doubt Bobcats will get #1 pick otherwise they may not even sale 10 tickets next yr. When is te last time Nuramon where the worst team in the leage got to pick 1st?

[nuraman00]

HAve u seen GM`s go this thing or just have read it?

I've listened to interviews from GMs who talked for 2-3 minutes straight about what it was like. And multiple GMs from the same draft lottery, with their thoughts, when they were in the room.

I've also seen YouTubes from the team officials having their private celebrations afterwards, with the GM who was in the room describing what it was like. Both from teams who got a top pick, and ones that didn't.

These weren't the representatives that were on TV, but the one who was in the room, getting together with the rest of the high ranking team officials.

Both of these teams GMs (the ones who got a pick and ones who didn't) were describing what they felt afterward in the room, as each ball was drawn. (For example, after the 3rd ball, one team knew he was out).

I've read a ton of other teams boards over the years, so I've seen the kind of audio and video interviews behind-the-scenes that someone with access has posted.

[graumet]

These "representatives" are Kevin Pritchard and Rich Cho. Pritchard was the GM of Portland in 2007. Cho was the assistant GM of Seattle in 2007.

They wouldn't need $10,000, nor just sit idly while someone else hypothetically gets a good pick. Not when their respective team's success is tied to their jobs.

These representatives are high ranking team officials, not some intern working for each organization.

Portland almost won the draft lottery in 2008 also, as they had the first 3 numbers drawn (11, 9, 13). They needed the 4th number to be 12, but since it was a 7, it went to Chicago.

Nope, still not sold. I think it could be the Queen in that room and Stern could make her keep her mouth shut.

I like your arguments, they're pretty solid. Still one major hole. Why not post some sort of video of the process as opposed to having some supposed respectables vouching for its validity? Even if the process is boring and lame. People post vids of their cats sleeping, there is no reason the NBA can't clear the air here.

[nuraman00]

When is te last time Nuramon where the worst team in the leage got to pick 1st?


2004: Orlando

2003: Cleveland tied with Denver for the worst pick, but Denver won the coin flip to have that extra 1/1000 chance. Cleveland won the lottery.

[nuraman00]

Nope, still not sold. I think it could be the Queen in that room and Stern could make her keep her mouth shut.

I like your arguments, they're pretty solid. Still one major hole. Why not post some sort of video of the process as opposed to having some supposed respectables vouching for its validity? Even if the process is boring and lame. People post vids of their cats sleeping, there is no reason the NBA can't clear the air here.

I agree with you on that, after the auditing is done, this could be posted.

There have been similar "behind the scenes" stuff posted about teams (on a team level) before.

And I'm the kind of person that would watch these types of videos, lol.

[GoKings2010]

So its been yrs. Ill gurantee u right now the Bobcats will get the #1 pick. Watch!

[nuraman00]

So its been yrs. Ill gurantee u right now the Bobcats will get the #1 pick. Watch!

Make your pick for the top 3 in here:

2012 NBA Draft Lottery Predictions Thread. (http://kingsforum.net/live/showthread.php?471-2012-NBA-Draft-Lottery-Predictions-Thread)
:)