Official 2012-2013 Kings Prediction thread

[nuraman00]

dutch_litchford's thoughts:

++++++++++++++++++++++

Before the season started, I predicted 32 wins. I was listening to Grant Napear on 1140 a day or two before the Kings' opener and he predicted mid-to-high 30s in terms of wins. I believe he finally settled on 36 wins, but he was getting on callers who said they would win in the 20s.


I've seen the first three games (either live or on the Comcast replays), and here are some of my early thoughts:


*The defense has only subtly improved. The Kings aren't giving up as many easy baskets and they seem to be deflecting more passes, disrupting passing zones, etc. But they still leave too many guys open on the perimeter.


*The rebounding has been very disappointing. They have good personnel for rebounding (Cousins, Thompson, Robinson), and shouldn't be getting outrebounded by double-digits. Indiana outrebounded them 67-47. That's unexcusable.


*The offense is a complete mess. This year's team cannot execute in a half-court offense. Not enough movement off the ball, and it results in either a bad shot or a drive to the hoop looking for a foul, but not getting it. Also, way too many missed layups or close shots.


*Extremely unimpressed with James Johnson so far. He's supposed to be a defensive specialist, but I havent' seen it yet. He's athletic, but it seems sometimes like he doesn't know how to play. I cringe whenever I see him shoot. I hope (and expect) my opinion changes soon.


*Thornton needs to start. He's by far the Kings' best offensive player, and I know this means Evans either needs to start at the one or three. But I don't like him off the bench.


*Robinson hasn't done much yet, but I feel confident that he'll get more comfortable with his role soon.


*Thomas > Brooks, at least right now.


*Horrible coaching by Keith Smart in the game vs. the Pacers. Kings were down by 6 with about 25 seconds left in 2OT, Smart calls a timeout. Now, I'm no expert or anything, but I feel like the Kings' best bet is to shoot a quick three, hope it goes in, then foul immediately, hope the Pacers miss the free throws, and then shoot another three. But he draws up a play where the Kings go for two (which they miss). A two doesn't do them any good in that situation. I scratched my head at that.


The team needs a lot of work. They could have won a couple of those first three games, but bad execution down the stretch did them in.

[nuraman00]

DCKingsFan, your new nickname is The Tequila Monster.

[DCKingsFan]

Agreed with your comments. They need to trade Evans ASAP and let Thorton start.

Smart needs to bench anyone not playing hard D or coming back to rebound on the defensive end.

Until that happens, there isn't a good go forward plan. Ilyasova would have been very helpful to open up the court on the offensive end.

[DCKingsFan]

DCKingsFan, your new nickname is The Tequila Monster.

Let there be no doubt...

[nuraman00]

Agreed with your comments.

They were dutch_litchford's. I just posted them.

[nuraman00]

I think the defense, at least after 3 games, has been a lot better. They're 7th in defensive efficiency.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAC/2013.html

Johnson has been bad so far.

If you let Thornton start, it's going to get bad with he, Thomas, and Cousins all on the floor. They all take a lot of long shots. There will not be much scoring in the paint. And I don't think Thornton is a starter, he's a less ball handling version of Jason Terry or Jamaal Crawford.

The best hope is for Johnson to play better.

[nuraman00]

DCKingsFan, I had the Jamba Juice Pumpkin Smash a few days ago. I liked it.

Have you had it? Thoughts?

[nuraman00]

Ok, I should be able to do my predictions this weekend.

[DCKingsFan]

They were dutch_litchford's. I just posted them.

He is clearly MENSA material

[nuraman00]

He is clearly MENSA material

He's a member of both MENSA and NASA? Wow.

[nuraman00]

Ok, I should be able to do my predictions this weekend.

Saturday afternoon is my new goal.

[nuraman00]

Stuff keeps coming up and I can't guarantee I'll have this year's predictions done by tomorrow anymore.

[nuraman00]

The predictions will not happen today. (Part of it is that I have to figure out how I want to rank some other teams before I can figure out where to place the Kings).

It's either work on my predictions, or watch the Kings game.

Even though it hurts my brain, I'm choosing the Kings game.

[nuraman00]

The predictions will happen this weekend.

[nuraman00]

Ok, I've been wanting to do this for a while, I'm going to spend some time and do it now. This is how I think the teams will finish the regular season.



Miami - Yeah, the defending champs will end up with the league's best record. This is what I thought would happen at the beginning of the season. Plus they play their stars a lot of minutes.


San Antonio - I've always been a believer in them. Doesn't matter how old they are. Plus they seem to make midseason acquisitions to bolster their team.


Memphis Grizzlies - I'm using the season in-progress for this one. I would not have had them this high at the beginning of the season. In fact, I was afraid that losing Mayo would have hurt their playmaking and perimeter scoring.


However, it appears that Randolph and Gay are finally healthy together, and that Bayless is just being used as a scorer and nothing else. I've never really liked Bayless' game but he's scoring and shooting well right now. And, Marc is playing better than Pau. I've also been a fan of Hollins coaching since 2009-2010, I like the system he runs.



Oklahoma City - I had them here before the Harden trade, and I don't think there's much of a dropoff with Martin. I seemed to be one of the few that posted more about how Martin would be a good fit, rather than what the Thunder lost in Harden.
I didn't think Martin's defense would be a problem, as long as they still had Sefolosha and Westbrook on the perimeter. Plus, a side benefit of not having Harden handle the ball, would mean that it gets to be in Durant's hands a little more, and he gets to take on a bigger role. He is passing and rebounding well this season.

Los Angeles Clippers - Yeah, I would have had the Clippers here at the start of the year, and it would have been on a whim because of DeAndre Jordan's added post game. Not the most solid reason, basing it on a guy like DeAndre Jordan, but these are just regular season finishes. I wanted something positive to go on.



Los Angeles Lakers - At the start of the year, I didn't think the Lakers would really be much better on offense with Nash, because I thought they had a pretty good offense last year and didn't think it could get much better, plus I figured Nash and Bryant would start to have some bad shooting nights, like at what stage Paul Pierce is at now.


I think a lot of that will change with D'Antoni. Now with him, they really can get even better on offense. Still, I don't like how Dwight Howard appears to be just a put-back guy. No, Howard doesn't have a lot of moves, but he should be allowed to use his physical presence to create a few shots on his own, earlier in the shot clock. He seems like he gets his points without trying. One could argue that Howard will be even more dangerous if they give him some shots, but I don't know if D'Antoni ever will.
Why am I more down on the Lakers age than the Spurs? The Spurs are deeper, and their PG is in his prime.


Brooklyn Nets - I'm using the season-in-progress for this one. At the start of the year, I would have had them lower because I didn't like Williams shooting. However, after seeing them for a few games, I didn't give Brook Lopez enough credit. He's a good offensive player. No he doesn't rebound too well, but they have Humphries and Evans for that.


Blatche and Marshon Brooks also seem to to be contributing well off the bench for a good team.


And Gerald Wallace has barely played too. I hope they let Wallace handle the ball some on the perimeter, I liked seeing him do that on the perimeter.


So, at the beginning of the year, I thought Brook Lopez would be a Blatche type player, but I had let his injury last year affect me too much. He's pretty skilled and shoots well.


Boston Celtics - Usually Boston starts out fast, and they haven't yet. But I think they'll figure it out. Or they'll get some more wing help. Their defense hasn't been good this year but I'm sure it will get better. Courtney Lee will probably help some with that.






Atlanta Hawks - Hmm, based on the season in progress they should probably be higher. I didn't like the way Teague ran the team last year, I felt he was not ready to take control and win his team a tough playoffs series like Parker or Rondo could.


He's getting more assists this year, so maybe he's improved. Atlanta is also #1 in defense, and #23 in offense. However, Korver and Lou Williams can probably replace some of Johnson's offense. Maybe with that guard depth they can not lose much in the backcourt, while finally having Smith and Horford healthy.


I've thought the Hawks had a top 3 frontcourt the past 3 years, and if Teague can improve as a passer, maybe they can win a tough series.


Chicago Bulls - I think if Rose can come back with 4-6 weeks left in the season they'll make a push.


Golden State Warriors - I would not have had them this high at the start of the year, but they are 13th in defense and 4th in rebounding and I think they're there to stay. Landry and Jack are playing well. Barnes has fit in a lot better than I thought. He's tougher than I thought.


And surprisingly they're this good defensively without Bogut. However, my preseason predictions would have had Bogut healthy, now who knows if he'll even play 30 games.



New York Knickerbockers - Despite their start, I don't like the offensive talent on their team overall. I think they'll have a worse 2nd half of the season.


Minnesota Timberwolves - When Rubio comes back, given their talent, they should be higher, but I think something about them won't click as well and they'll lose some games that they could have won.


They are 25th in offense right now and I don't think that's all because of Rubio's injury.



Denver Nuggets - Hmm, at the beginning of the year I probably would have put them higher. I'm using the season-in-progress for this one.

Lawson is shooting the ball horrible right now, and they can't hit 3's.




Philadelphia 76ers - Last spot was a toss-up between Indiana and Philly. I think the Paul George-George Hill backcourt could work, it might need some time. But maybe not. I don't think losing Granger is that big of a deal, it's their overall PG play which will decide how good they can be.


Hibbert got off to a slow start, but there's still a lot of time to turn things around. However, his penchant for foul trouble is always concerning.


Ok, enough about Indiana. Why did I pick Philly?


Jrue Holiday.


Hmm, despite Holiday's great play, they are still 27th in offense! LOL.


Charlotte Bobcats - Definitely using the season-in-progress for this one. Kemba Walker has made big strides (although he still needs to work on his shooting) and he's showing an all-around game.

Kidd-Gilchrist seems to have made an immediate impact.

I also don't know how their schedule relates to others, maybe they've had an easier schedule.

Maybe I'm jumping the gun on them, but we've also seen a team like Utah rise up last year, so it's not that far-fetched that they could get a 7th or 8th seed.

They have one game on NBA TV against the Hornets, and one game on WGN against the Bulls, so I'll try to see how they look.

They don't have one 20 point scorer though, that's concerning.






So these are roughly what I think the playoffs teams will be, and the league regular season finish. So here's why a few other teams missed the cut:


Utah Jazz - They have a lot of good bigs, but I don't like their halfcourt offense. And as typical of a Jazz team, they're much better at home. I don't know if Mo can stay healthy either, he'll probably have nagging injuries.


Milwaukee Bucks - I don't like the backcourt pairing, too many inefficient shooters. And not enough frontcourt players.


Dallas Mavericks - Mayo and Kaman are playing great, so you would think that when Nowitzki comes back, they'll make the playoffs for sure, right? I don't think it will be that easy, they're still missing something to me.


Hmm, they're 22nd in defense, maybe that's it.


Bottom 6 (6th worst to worst):


Toronto Raptors - Yeah, they have some catching up to do to pass the Rockets. But if they keep both Lowry and Calderon, I like their PGs. DeRozan reminds me of a Batum type player, he's pretty good. And I've been high on Valanciunus. I know, he's just a rookie, but maybe he'll help later on.


Houston Rockets - I think their offense will fall pretty hard soon. Harden isn't enough. Kudos to Parsons.


Washington Wizards - They might be able to climb even higher. I do like the talent on this team enough that they could be out of the bottom five. But it may be too big of a hole.


Detroit Pistons - Very good emerging frontcourt, but as usual, the backcourt will hold them back.


New Orleans Hornets - Gordon will help some when he returns but they need more than that. Kudos to Vazquez this year.


Cleveland Cavs - Bad offense, I think Washington will pass them once they get Wall back and now that Nene is back.



Ok, I've ranked all but four teams (Portland, Phoenix, Orlando, Sacramento).

[nuraman00]

You should know the drill by now

1) Total Kings Wins - 4 points for first, 3 points for second, 2 points for 3rd, 1 point for fourth
2) Kings Pacific Standing - 2 points for first, 1 points for 2nd
3) Kings Western Standings - 2 points for first, 1 points for 2nd
4) Kings League Standings - 3 points for first, 2 points for 2nd, 1 point for 3rd
5) Bonus Question: Is Evans traded before the deadline - 1 point
6) Bonus Question: Does Robinson make the Rookie All-Star team - 1 point
7) Bonus Question: Does Cousins make the All-Star team - 1 point
8) Name the starting 5 (most times used in the season) - 2 points

Example

82 wins, 1st in Pacific, 1st in the West, 1st in the League, Evans is traded by the deadline, Robinson makes the All-Rookie team, Cousins makes the All-Start team, (Thomas, thorton, Johnson, Robinson, Cousins)

1) Total Kings Wins - 29 wins. As you'll see in the previous post, I didn't have them in the bottom 6, and even had them higher than Houston. But if you're looking at the longterm view, like many of us are, 29 wins is not progress.

2) Kings Pacific Standing - 5th. Phoenix is still better, they are more efficient.

3) Kings Western Standings - 28th

4) Kings League Standings - 24th

5) Bonus Question: Is Evans traded before the deadline - No

6) Bonus Question: Does Robinson make the Rookie All-Star team - Hell no.

7) Bonus Question: Does Cousins make the All-Star team - No

8) Name the starting 5 (most times used in the season) -

I'll take the current one.

Brooks
Evans
Salmons
Thompson
Cousins

[kingraider412]

50 Wins
2nd in Pacific
6th in the West
Evans is traded
Robinson does not make the all rookie team
Cousins makes the all star game as a reserve
Brooks, Reke, Johnson, Robinson, and Cuz

I think the Kings will commit to playing defensive basketball and shock the NBA this year.

In fact, I think they will start the year 3-0. No Rose, Love, and Rubio.
Wins against Chicago, Minn, and Indiana.
The NBA will take notice Sac is for real this year!

Completely Delirious, Like a 12 pk of Natty Light.

30 wins
Second to Last in the Pacific( one more win than the Suns to hurt our wonderful draft luck)
Second to Last In the West(5th Worst in the League)
Robinson is a non-factor. Almost looking likea semi-bust.
Evans is still traded, but maybe for a nice Veteran 3(Esp, since he's playing great now) But, most likely traded for Ramon Sessions and a Large Meat Lover's from Pizza Guy.
Cuz continue's to under impress and his numbers decline from last year. He needs a coach to not only coddle him, but most importantly teach him. Which, Smart(Oxymoron) will never do. Coddling yes, teaching, negative.

[nuraman00]

But, most likely traded for Ramon Sessions and a Large Meat Lover's from Pizza Guy.

Lol.

[nuraman00]

1) Total Kings Wins - 29 wins. As you'll see in the previous post, I didn't have them in the bottom 6, and even had them higher than Houston. But if you're looking at the longterm view, like many of us are, 29 wins is not progress.

2) Kings Pacific Standing - 5th. Phoenix is still better, they are more efficient.

3) Kings Western Standings - 28th

4) Kings League Standings - 24th

5) Bonus Question: Is Evans traded before the deadline - No

6) Bonus Question: Does Robinson make the Rookie All-Star team - Hell no.

7) Bonus Question: Does Cousins make the All-Star team - No

8) Name the starting 5 (most times used in the season) -

I'll take the current one.

Brooks
Evans
Salmons
Thompson
Cousins

DCKingsFan, can you make a post with everyone's final predictions? You don't have a post with everyone's final predictions.

My results:

1. Kings won 28 games. No one picked that, but I was the closest with 29, so I get 4 points.
2. Kings were 4th in the Pacific. PackfanMatt_12 and DCKingsFan get 2 points for that, I get 1 point for picking 5th, richmodreggie108 gets 1 point for picking 3rd.
3. Kings were 13th in the West. Whoops, my Western standings prediction doesn't make any sense, 28th.
4. Kings were 25th in the league, I had 24th. I win that one. 3 points.
5. Evans was not traded. 1 Bonus Point.
6. Robinson All-Rookie team: No. 1 Bonus Point.
7. Cousins making the All-Star team: He didn't. 1 Bonus Point.
8. Most Used starting 5: Not me. I don't know if anyone got it.

D. Cousins ▪ T. Evans ▪ J. Salmons ▪ I. Thomas ▪ J. Thompson


So, DCKingsFan, check my calculations, but I think I have 4+1+3 = 7 points, and 1+1+1= 3 Bonus Points. I don't know if you want to add those together.

[DCKingsFan]

ctba received 1 point for Kings Wins...